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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 7-J.Sanders 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model