Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 89

Tennessee Titans 9 – Miami Dolphins 3

(11:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 0-B.Berrios to TEN 48 for 27 yards (46-M.Cox).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.77 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model