Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 24 for 8 yards (33-S.Neal; 45-D.Riley). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model