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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to TEN 44, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model