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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 6 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.70 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP