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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Miami Dolphins
4th & 1 at the 46
Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 3
What Actually Happened
(12:27) 10-T.Hill left end pushed ob at TEN 46 for no gain (28-Q.Diggs).
The Three Options
GO
+1.33 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
KICK
-0.91 EP
- 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
- 62% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
