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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 63

Detroit Lions 35 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to SEA 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP