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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 7-G.Smith up the middle to SEA 36 for 2 yards (44-M.Rodriguez; 31-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model