Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 20 at the 83

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to SEA 33, Center-49-H.Hatten. 33-D.Williams to SEA 41 for 8 yards (51-B.Niemann; 49-H.Hatten). PENALTY on SEA-22-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.50 EP
71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model