Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 27

(:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 11-V.Jefferson [95-A.Adebawore].

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.01 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -0.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model