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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model