4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to PIT 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-C.Austin to IND 33 for 30 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.98 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP