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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.31 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model