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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 8-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to IND 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 28 for 5 yards (83-Co.Heyward). ** Injury Update: PIT-51-Ni.Herbig has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP