Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(1:16) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-45-Z.Triner. 33-C.DeJean MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at PHI 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.99 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model