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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to TB 22, Center-49-R.Lovato. 10-T.Palmer to TB 27 for 5 yards (57-B.VanSumeren, 81-G.Calcaterra).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model