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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.67 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model