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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 11 at the 51
Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33
What Actually Happened
(4:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 42 for -7 yards (98-A.Nelson).
The Three Options
GO
-0.48 EP
What Happened
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.95 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.09 EP
KICK
-1.02 EP
- 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
