Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

(7:47) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to PHI 23, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.09 EP
59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model