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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model