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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to TB 28, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model