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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to PHI 20, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model