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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 1

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-P.Campbell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model