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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 10-B.Mann punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model