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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.75 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 18, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP