Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(2:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to LA 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-X.Smith to LA 26 for 17 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model