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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 43

Chicago Bears 24 – Los Angeles Rams 18

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 35 yards to LA 8, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-36-J.Owens.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.70 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model