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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 18 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 42-E.Evans punts 67 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-D.Carter to CHI 33 for 16 yards (35-J.Hummel, 20-R.Rivers). PENALTY on LA-33-C.Lampkin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.35 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 42, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model