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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP