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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 56

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to LA 5, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-21-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP