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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 78

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 28 for no gain (37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.23 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model