Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-82-S.Sims, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model