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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 67

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model