Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 66

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

(14:11) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model