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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at HOU 2.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP