Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(8:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to DEN 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model