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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 77

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NYJ 31, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 33 for 2 yards (43-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.92 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model