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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 49

New York Jets 9 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model