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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 49

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to NYJ 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.68 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model