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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 17

New York Jets 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.22 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model