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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NYJ 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 27 for 11 yards (20-M.Burton; 26-D.Key).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.76 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model