4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 44

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 29 yards to NYJ 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 15 for no gain (1-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.97 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.18 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP