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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 69

New York Jets 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to DEN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model