Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 68

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 3

(13:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to NYJ 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 24 for 10 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model