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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 17 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: NYG-98-D.Davidson has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model