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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 24

New York Giants 12 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 34-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.26 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model