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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 45

New York Giants 12 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to DAL 37 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.85 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model