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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 17 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(:47) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NYG 26, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 48 for 22 yards (35-M.Liufau; 40-H.Luepke).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model