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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 9 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 34-G.Joseph 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP