Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 17 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 14 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(:14) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-89-B.Spann-Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.53 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -1.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model